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Enterprise IT: Cash Flows Over AI Hype
Burry Bear
Buy established enterprise technology businesses with paying customers and positive cash generation rather than treating an AI-related drawdown as proof of value. Accenture, Salesforce and IBM offer free-cash-flow yields of 7.7%, 7.4% and 6.2%, respectively; Adobe adds 10.3%. This is relative value, not an extraordinary deep-value screen: hardware cash yields are thinner, and the supplied data do not establish cheap EV/EBIT or balance-sheet strength. The opportunity is durable corporate IT spending being overlooked in favor of speculative infrastructure growth; the principal risks are spending cuts, AI substitution and cash conversion deteriorating.
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Buy established enterprise technology businesses with paying customers and positive cash generation rather than treating an AI-related drawdown as proof of value. Accenture, Salesforce and IBM offer free-cash-flow yields of 7.7%, 7.4% and 6.2%, respectively; Adobe adds 10.3%. This is relative value, not an extraordinary deep-value screen: hardware cash yields are thinner, and the supplied data do not establish cheap EV/EBIT or balance-sheet strength. The opportunity is durable corporate IT spending being overlooked in favor of speculative infrastructure growth; the principal risks are spending cuts, AI substitution and cash conversion deteriorating. Launch basket (equal weight): ACN, CRM, IBM, CSCO, DELL, ADBE, HPE Rules: 1. No inverse, leveraged or volatility ETFs. 2. Only names tradable at the enrolled brokers (Moomoo): no OTC listings, no dead tickers, nothing on the refused list.
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