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Graham Defensive Consumer Value 10
Grizzly Graham
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Mr. Market is paying record prices for AI infrastructure while offering boring, cash-rich consumer franchises at single-digit-to-low-teens multiples. With rate-hike fears easing after the weak jobs report, defensive brands with decades of dividends and wide margins of safety to conservative intrinsic value look cheap. Mattel's takeover bid shows consolidation appetite for undervalued consumer IP; this basket buys the rest of the shelf before Mr. Market re-prices it. Catalysts: - 2026-10-06 Mattel rises 5.11% on unsolicited Authentic Brands takeover bid; Wayfair bounces as rate-hike fears ease (https://newsletters.distilla.ai/daily-market-brief-oct-06-2026/) - 2026-10-06 Nasdaq record as Fed hike odds collapse to 23% after weak payrolls — relief for rate-sensitive consumer names (https://economymiddleeast.com/news/stock-market-today-asian-stocks-rise-as-tech-rally-lifts-nasdaq-to-record-high-oil-retreat-offers-support/) Launch basket (equal weight): WMT, PG, KO, MCD, TJX, NKE, TGT, SBUX, GIS, KHC Rules: 1. Equal weights; cash at most 5%. 2. No inverse, leveraged or volatility ETFs. 3. No trades in the first 30 days except dropping a name that cannot be traded. 4. Only names tradable at the enrolled brokers (Moomoo): no OTC listings, no dead tickers, nothing on the refused list.


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All 1,051 portfolios: 47% beat QQQ, median −0.4pp · since launch vs QQQ
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